DVCon 2009

I attended DVCon today at the Double Tree Hotel in San Jose. Went to the keynote address by Aart de Geus of Synopsys, and the panel session “EDA: Dead or Alive?”

The Panel session was hosted by Peggy Aycinena of EDA Confidential. Also in attendance were Gabe Moretti or Gabe on EDA, and Gary Smith of Gary Smith EDA. Those three represent the main journalists/analysts of the EDA industry. The starting tone of Peggy Aycinena was hostile to the EDA industry as a whole. A closing question by Gabe Moretti was equally hostile in nature. When I couple their behavior with comments over the last year by Gary Smith, the impression I get is that these are a bunch of people pissed off over not being able to make a living covering EDA for the mainstream press or being a full time research analyst. They all come off as a group of “old foggies” and do the EDA community a disservice from their lack of objectivity.

Open question that Peggy Aycinena asked of the panelists was whether they were worried about the trend that certain IDM’s were developing their own internal EDA tools versus buying commercial tools. The panel seemed dumbfounded by the question. She went on to state that Intel and IBM were developing their own tools. One of the panelists responded by saying that Intel and IBM were not the whole industry. Gary Meyers of Synopsys stated that they see much the opposite, that the development costs of creating internal EDA tools was prohibitive, and they were actively working with both Intel and IBM. Historically both Intel and IBM have had large internal EDA tool development programs. It is quite likely both continue to invest in internal tools for specific applications. IBM specifically stated last year at the Common Platform Technology Symposium that they were investing heavily in software to create mask data. When we hear that Qualcomm, Broadcom, and Marvell have large internal EDA development teams, then we should start to get worried about the EDA industry as a whole.

The question Gabe Moretti asked, was why the EDA companies don’t do something visionary, looking ahead 5 years for what the needs of the semiconductor industry might need. This is a stupid question. EDA companies are here to make money for their investors, they are not charities. Most EDA companies I know of are trying desperately to stay even with the foundries in providing tools that match the feature size of the latest process technology. If you want visionary research, look to the world’s universities.

The only other question asked by the audience was why don’t we see more open source software in the EDA world. Ravi Subramanian of Berkeley Design Automation had a simple answer to how useful open source software is. He stated that if you wanted to use a PSP model, you need a commercial simulator. Spice (from UC Berkeley) only supports BSIM. Simple tasks in the EDA world might be able to go open source, but for most applications the technology investment is far too great, the need far too current, for open source software to be able to keep up with the pace of development in the semiconductor world.

Jack Kerouac and Naropa University

I decided to read some additional novels by Jack Kerouac, after listening to a series of lectures about the beat poets from Naropa University, which have been posted at http://www.archive.org. I had not read “Big Sur” previously, and decided that it looked interesting. It is a study of a person going mad, as you read it you realize that all of the supporting characters are helpless, even though they don’t want to be.

Project for a New American Century

Heard a reference to the “Project for a New American Century” and decided to investigate. These people are basically the mind trust of the current Bush administrations foreign policy and defense policy. Normally you could cry conspiracy theory about what they are currently doing, but that is not the case here; they published their ideas in 1998 in a document entitled: “Rebuilding America’s Defenses.” I have included a number quotes from the document.

In particular, it has more effective nuclear weapons; virtually ceased development of safer and more effective nuclear weapons[page 19].

Is there such thing as a safe nuclear weapon? Or are the current ones unstable? if so maybe everyone needs to be told about this.

Although this would appear to be creating a potential new theatre of warfare, in fact space has been militarized for the better part of four decades. Weather, communications, navigation and reconnaissance satellites are increasingly essential elements in American military power[page 66].

So their attitude is let’s just take over all of it.

The U.S. approach to space has been one of dilatory drift[page 68].

Or maybe previous administrations recognized the truly international scope of outer space.

Taken together, the prospects for space war or “cyberspace war” represent the truly revolutionary potential inherent in the notion of military transformation[page 69].

Both true, although I suspect we have lost the cyberspace war already. Can you say “virus” or “spam”?

Activity today tends to drive out innovation for tomorrow. Second, the lack of an immediate military competitor contributes to a sense of complacency about the extent and duration of American military dominance[page 71].

Their argument is: “So lets make wars so that we can our military hardware current.”

And advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool[page 72].

Let’s just ignore the treaty on Biological warfare. Do treaties mean anything to these people?

The individual services also need to be given greater bureaucratic and legal standing if they are to achieve these goals. Though a full discussion of this issue is outside the purview of this study, the reduced importance of the civilian secretaries of the military departments and the service chiefs of staff is increasingly inappropriate to the demands of a rapidly changing technological, strategic and geopolitical landscape[page 72].

So the military knows best, and any oversite is bad. Our government was set up on the basis of balance of power. Get rid of the oversite and you have tryany.

Indeed, it is ironic that, as post-Cold-War military operations have become more sophisticated and more reliant on air power and longrange strikes, they have become less politically decisive[page 73].

They are less effective because what we hit is not what we thought is was. We rely on pictures too much. Remember in the first Iraq war, how after the first day we had destroyed all of the scud missiles, and all of Iraq’s airplanes, only to have a scud missile flying days later. Or how about blowing up the Chinese Embassy/Consulate in Bosnia. Satellites can be decieved, databases can be flat wrong. Real people on the ground provide real intelligence. I can make full size model airplanes that a satellite cannot tell from real.

Future soldiers may operate in encapsulated, climate-controlled, powered fighting suits, laced with sensors, and boasting chameleonlike “active” camouflage. “Skin-patch” pharmaceuticals help regulate fears, focus concentration and enhance endurance and strength. A display mounted on a soldier’s helmet permits a comprehensive view of the battlefield – in effect to look around corners and over hills – and allows the soldier to access the entire combat information and intelligence system while filtering incoming data to prevent overload. Individual weapons are more lethal, and a soldier’s ability to call for highly precise and reliable indirect fires – not only from Army systems but those of other services – allows each individual to have great influence over huge spaces[page 74].

Technology is not a replacement for strategy. Very high tech solutions can be subverted with simple and cheap solutions. World War 2 offers many examples, as do other more recent wars.

Under the “Land Warrior” program, some Army experts envision a “squad” of seven soldiers able to dominate an area the size of the Gettysburg battlefield – where, in 1863, some 165,000 men fought[page 74].

Not likely even in the open desert. Our current situation in Iraq shows otherwise.

Moreover, the Navy should accelerate efforts to develop other strike warfare munitions and weapons. In addition to procuring greater numbers of attack submarines, the Navy should convert four of its Trident ballistic missile submarines to conventional strike platforms, much as the Air Force has done with manned bombers[page 78].

Who is the target for these attack submarines? An attack submarine is designed to hit other ships, or other submarines. Is some other countries navy a threat to ours today?

Consequently, the Marine Corps should consider development of a “gunship” version of the V-22[page 80].

Has anyone ever seen an A10-Warthog? Great airplane, rugged, cheap, and highly manuverable. Unfortunately too cheap for Bush’s cronies to make ludicrously large amounts on, in inflated defense dollars.

The estimates all agree that the Clinton program is underfunded; the differences lie in gauging the amount of the shortage and range from about $26 billion annually to $100 billion annually, with the higher numbers representing the more rigorous analyses[page 81].

Funny how the higher number is automatically the more correct one.

As the annual federal budget has moved from deficit to surplus and more resources have become available, there has been no serious or sustained effort to recapitalize U.S. armed forces[page 82].

Once upon a time we called this a bonus, because we had won the cold war.

For example, CSIS estimates that the cost of modernizing the current 1.37 millionman force would require procurement spending of $164 billion per year. While we might not agree with every aspect of the methodology underlying this calculation, the larger point is clear: if defense spending remains at current levels, as current plans under the QDR assume, the Pentagon would only be able to modernize a little more than half the force[page 84].

Maybe we did’nt need so large a force.

or U.S troops enforce a demilitarized zone on the Golan Heights[page 85].

Not in my lifetime. I can’t image the American people allowing this to happen.

Nevertheless, we believe that, over time, the program we advocate would require budgets roughly equal to those necessary to fully fund the QDR force – a minimum level of 3.5 to 3.8 percent of gross domestic product[page 87].

And our defense budget is greater than the all of the rest of world’s defense budgets combined. Remember Sparta?

this would result in a defense “topline” increase of $75 billion to $100 billion over that period, a small percentage of the $700 billion on budget surplus now projected for that same period[page 87].

But your boss spent all that surplus on tax cuts, and he still wants the increase.

Angels and Demons by Dan Brown

“Angels and Demons” is a very good book, I think better than “The DaVinci Code;” although I am curious how the main character has a different girlfriend in “The DaVinci Code” when he has the heroine in “Angels and Demons” as a girlfriend.

The Devil in the White City by Erik Larson

Finished “The Devil in the White City” by Erik Larson. The book is really two books interwoven; the first describes the 1893 Chicago World’s Fair; while the second describes a doctor living in Chicago who was a mass murderer. Chicago in 1893 sounded dreadful because of the lack of sanitary conditions at the time. The doctor killed at least nine people, and most likely killed 35 people. What was most interesting to read was that Dr. Michael Swango a contemporary serial killer had a book about the earlier doctor serial killer in his possession when apprehended in Chicago when returning from abroad. I went to college with Michael Swango at Quincy College (now university) in Quincy, Illinois. We were both Chemistry majors (there were 8-10 of us in each class). He seemed normal. For more information about him: http://www.crimelibrary.com/serial6/swango/